Trump says Iran preparing offer to resolve US demands, new talks expected

Trump told Reuters that Iran is readying an offer to resolve U.S. demands. The likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 is now at 8% YES, up from 7% yesterday.

The U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market ticked up slightly on the news. With new talks expected in Islamabad, traders are pricing in a narrow opening. The Trump agreement to Iranian demands market remains at 15% YES, unchanged over the last 24 hours but down from 62% a week ago.

The market for no diplomatic meeting occurring by June 30 sits at 8.2% YES, down from 9% yesterday, as traders increasingly expect Islamabad to host the next round.

USDC volume across these markets is low. The nuclear deal market saw $7,699 in trading over the past 24 hours. It takes $1,550 to move the odds 5 points, which points to thin liquidity and a stable market absent new developments. The largest single move in recent trading was a 4-point spike in the nuclear deal market.

Trump’s statement suggests progress but lacks specifics. There is no clear outline of Iran’s offer and no confirmation of who controls the negotiating table, so this may be more about tone-setting than a real breakthrough. Buying YES at 8¢ offers a potential 12.5x return if a deal is struck by April 30, a long shot but not impossible if talks accelerate.

Watch for announcements from Islamabad or statements from the IRGC, which has direct influence over Iran’s negotiating stance. Updates in the next few days could move these markets sharply.

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