Trump declared the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz ends when an agreement is signed. The market for a blockade lift by May 31 is at 90% YES.
Market reaction
Trump’s conditional statement has kept trader confidence steady that lifting the blockade is near-term. The May 31 market is priced at 90%, unchanged from yesterday. The April 19 market sits at 17.5% YES, showing traders doubt a deal closes that quickly.
Why it matters
The 64-point gap between April 19 and May 31 odds implies traders expect the decisive moment to fall somewhere in that window. Talks are set to resume this weekend, and the term structure prices in a real chance that those talks or a subsequent round produce a deal before the end of May.
Trading volume is $33,260 in USDC across the blockade markets. Depth to move 5 points is $3,730, meaning it takes real capital to shift these prices. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike after Trump’s statement.
What to watch
The May 31 odds at 82% reflect a bet on a diplomatic deal getting done. The situation is unstable, particularly given China’s potential intervention. A YES share at 18¢ for April 19 pays $1 if resolved, a 5.6x return, but that requires confidence that negotiations close within days.
Watch for the resumption of talks this weekend. Any announcement of an agreement or signs of Iranian compliance could push odds higher. Statements from Trump or the Pentagon on diplomatic progress or naval de-escalation would be the most direct catalysts.
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