Trump threatened to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure if talks fail. The odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22 dropped to 20% YES, down from 40% just 24 hours ago.
April 22 odds have halved as traders priced in the escalation threat. April 30 odds sit at 41.5% YES, down from 61% a day earlier. The May 31 market held up better at 61.5% YES, which suggests traders expect any breakthrough to take longer rather than not happen at all.
On the ceasefire front, odds of Trump announcing its break by April 21 spiked to 18% YES, up from 8% yesterday. Trump’s threats are driving traders to price in a breakdown of the current truce.
Daily combined USDC volume across these markets is $1.64 million. It takes $9,366 to move the April 22 market 5 points, which points to institutional participation. The largest single move in the past 24 hours was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM, a concentrated sell-off as traders repriced the deal timeline.
Trump’s threat has cut near-term deal probabilities roughly in half across the board. For contrarians, a YES share on a peace deal by April 22 at 20¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 5x return. That bet requires believing the Islamabad talks will produce a breakthrough within four days despite the public threats.
Watch Trump’s social media channels and Pentagon statements. Any confirmation of infrastructure strikes or positive signals from the talks could move these markets fast in either direction.
