US university endowments set to match stock market gains with massive tech bets

For years, the knock on big university endowments was simple: all that sophistication, all those expensive fund managers, and they still couldn’t beat the S&P 500. That narrative is getting a rewrite this fiscal year, and the authors are named SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.

Major US university endowments are on track to match or exceed S&P 500 returns for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, a dramatic reversal after a stretch of relative underperformance that had critics questioning whether the “Yale model” of heavy private-market allocation was still worth the illiquidity.

The numbers behind the comeback

The University of North Carolina system is expected to post returns exceeding 30% for the fiscal year. The University of Colorado Foundation is projecting 20.3% returns. Both figures are driven substantially by a single company: SpaceX, which went public in June 2026.

Harvard Management Company disclosed a $2.2 billion stake in SpaceX as of June 30, 2026, making it the largest single public equity holding in the university’s portfolio.

The University of Colorado committed approximately $4.2 million to SpaceX back in 2009. That position has ballooned to roughly $289 million, a 5,590% return.

The University of Michigan made an early $20 million investment in OpenAI. That stake now carries a target redemption amount of $2 billion.

Financial analysis firm Cambridge Associates noted that several endowments are projected to outperform the S&P 500 index this fiscal year, primarily due to successful venture capital stakes in these tech firms.

Why this matters beyond the ivory tower

Large endowments, those exceeding $5 billion in assets, had posted annualized returns of just 7.8% over the prior three years. The S&P 500 delivered 19.7% over that same window.

UNC’s route into SpaceX came through Founders Fund, the Peter Thiel-backed venture firm that was among SpaceX’s earliest institutional backers.