The US Central Command has announced that it conducted strikes on over 80 Iranian military targets, including air defense and missile sites. This action is part of the ongoing 2026 Iran War, which escalated following the collapse of a ceasefire agreement after Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The US offensive targeted key military assets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in an effort to diminish Iran’s capacity to disrupt international trade. The current military situation is marked by heightened tensions and active confrontation, as indicated by President Trump’s recent statements declaring the ceasefire agreement “over.”

Key Takeaways

• Market activity suggests that the US strikes are consistent with scenarios where Iran may implement a full airspace closure by July 31, with the probability rising from 8% to 22.5% over the past 24 hours.
• Increased military actions appear to have influenced markets on the likelihood of Iranian disruptions to shipping, with some sub-markets showing probability spikes.
• The escalation in military operations may indicate a shift in sentiment, with market participants viewing increased risks of broader conflict.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor announcements from the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization and Iranian State Television for indications of airspace restrictions. Developments regarding US-Iran relations, especially any further military engagements or diplomatic negotiations, will be pivotal. The coming days will be crucial in shaping the market’s view on the potential for further escalation or conflict resolution. Key indicators will include any new military actions or statements from President Trump and Iranian leadership.

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