US military operations in Strait of Hormuz continue, no de-escalation expected

US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum stated that President Trump’s order targeting Iranian boats capable of laying mines is “not an escalation.” The market for Trump ending military operations against Iran by March 1 sits at 0% YES.

Burgum’s comments point to continued military operations, making a near-term resolution less likely. The 0% YES on the March 1 market has not moved. Odds for ending military operations remain flat across all sub-markets.

The market for Trump renaming the Strait of Hormuz to “Strait of Trump” dropped to 2.9% YES, down from 4% 24 hours ago. This market trades $3,399 daily in actual USDC, with $3,784 in order book depth needed to shift the price 5 points. Burgum’s comments had no visible effect on this market, and the thin volume suggests traders see a name change as unlikely.

With the US continuing operations in the Strait of Hormuz, the focus is on military activity rather than diplomatic outcomes or symbolic moves like renaming. The capital required to move the renaming market confirms traders treat it as a long shot.

At 0% YES, the market for Trump announcing the end of military operations reflects entrenched positions and no expectation of change. For traders, any shift toward de-escalation would require concrete actions: troop withdrawals or verified diplomatic agreements. Without those, price movement is unlikely.

Watch for statements from Pete Hegseth or Karoline Leavitt, which could provide clearer direction. Any Pentagon briefing signaling a shift in operational language would be worth tracking.

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