The U.S. plans to seize Iran-linked ships in international waters, escalating tensions with Tehran. The probability of a U.S. declaration of war by December 31 is at 6% YES.

The U.S. aims to intercept Iranian vessels globally, broadening the scope of Operation Economic Fury. The December 31 market at 6% YES shows traders pricing in some escalation risk, though it remains moderate. The April 30 market sits at 0.4% YES, signaling little expectation of near-term conflict.

Volume is thin, with just $186 in real USDC traded over 24 hours. It takes $2,471 to move the April odds by 5 points, meaning a single large trade could sway the market. The largest recent price movement was negligible, reflecting limited conviction among traders.

Direct interdictions of Iranian ships risk retaliation, which could widen the conflict. For traders, a YES share at 6¢ pays $1 if war is declared by year-end, a 16.7x return. That bet requires believing these seizures provoke a significant Iranian response.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or changes in U.S. naval force deployments. These are the clearest indicators of whether tensions move toward a formal declaration of war.

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