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Adobe forecasts ChatGPT-driven traffic to retail sites will surge 130% this holiday season
AI-assisted shoppers spend more, return less, and browse longer, according to Adobe's annual holiday forecast covering $275.1 billion in expected online spending.
Adobe’s annual US online holiday shopping forecast just dropped a number that should make every retailer sit up straight: AI-assisted traffic to retail websites is projected to grow 130% year-over-year between November 1 and December 31, 2026.
The numbers behind the AI shopping boom
Adobe’s forecast, released September 28, paints a picture of a holiday season where generative AI tools aren’t just novelties but genuine drivers of commerce. The company projects total US online holiday spending will hit $275.1 billion, a 6.7% increase from last year.
Within that massive pie, AI-referred visitors are punching well above their weight. Adobe’s data shows these shoppers generated 43% higher revenue per visit in August 2026 compared to visitors arriving through non-AI channels. Cart-add rates among AI-referred visitors exceeded 32% during certain periods.
The AI traffic surges aren’t evenly distributed across the season, either. Adobe projects a 141% spike in AI-assisted traffic on Thanksgiving Day, followed by a 95% increase on Black Friday and an 88% jump on Cyber Monday.
Cyber Monday remains the single biggest online shopping day, with projected spending of $15.1 billion, up 6.2% year-over-year. Black Friday is expected to clock in at $12.9 billion, representing a 9.2% increase.
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Why AI shoppers behave differently
In a survey of 5,000 US consumers, 77% said they felt more confident in their purchases when using AI assistance. And 69% reported being less likely to return items they bought with an AI tool’s help.
The behavioral data backs up the self-reported survey results. AI-referred visitors spend more time on retail sites, view more pages, and add items to their carts at higher rates than shoppers arriving through conventional channels.
Discounts and BNPL fuel the spending surge
Adobe’s forecast highlights that Cyber Week discounts could reach up to 30% off, with early October promotions already pulling some holiday spending forward. Mobile shopping and buy-now-pay-later options continue to expand their share of holiday transactions as well.