Anthropic’s $1.5T IPO valuation faces risks from massive AI spending commitments, Tessera CEO warns

Anthropic’s potential $1.5 trillion IPO valuation faces significant risks from its long term AI infrastructure commitments, which could become a financial burden if revenue growth fails to keep pace, according to Chan Ahn, founder and CEO of Tessera PE.

In written comments to Crypto Briefing, Ahn, a former Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan executive, warned that the AI developer has committed to years of infrastructure spending despite generating most of its revenue from customer consumption rather than guaranteed future demand.

The mismatch could expose Anthropic to substantial fixed costs even if demand for its Claude AI models slows.

Anthropic’s IPO filing, made public October 26, showed $16.3 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026 and $131.7 billion in cash and short term investments as of June 30.

The company also disclosed approximately $265.6 billion in fixed or minimum guaranteed infrastructure commitments as of June 30, with additional agreements potentially increasing future spending.

Ahn said the central question for investors is whether Anthropic can maintain sufficient revenue growth to cover those obligations as payments come due.

The company generated roughly 80% of its first half revenue through consumption based services, although its filing also disclosed that some enterprise customers have signed multiyear agreements with minimum spending commitments.

Anthropic’s AI partners face risks from overlapping financial relationships

Ahn also raised concerns about the complex financial relationships supporting Anthropic’s infrastructure expansion, noting that major investors including Amazon, Google and Microsoft simultaneously serve as suppliers, customers or distribution partners.

These arrangements allow Anthropic to expand its computing capacity but create financial dependencies across multiple companies.

Ahn compared parts of the financing structure to the telecommunications industry’s infrastructure boom, when equipment suppliers helped finance customers purchasing their products.

He identified a potential $42 billion convertible note facility involving Broadcom as the closest parallel.

According to Anthropic’s filing, the agreement allows the company to issue up to $42 billion in convertible notes to help finance lease obligations related to computing infrastructure. No amounts were outstanding under the facility as of June 30.

Ahn acknowledged that Anthropic differs from many companies involved in the telecom boom because it already generates substantial revenue.

However, the filing does not provide a complete breakdown of how much infrastructure spending depends on financing arrangements involving strategic partners.

If demand for AI computing weakens, Ahn expects newer cloud providers to face some of the greatest pressure because their revenue depends on delivering and securing acceptance of computing capacity while they remain responsible for financing facilities and equipment.

Chipmakers providing customer financing, including Broadcom, could also face exposure, while hyperscalers would be affected through their investments, infrastructure contracts and distribution relationships.

The interconnected arrangements mean a slowdown in AI spending could affect several parts of the industry simultaneously rather than remaining confined to Anthropic.

Anthropic IPO could pressure tech offerings but crypto rotation remains unclear

Despite concerns about Anthropic’s infrastructure spending, Ahn said he sees little evidence that its public listing is already drawing substantial investment away from cryptocurrency markets.

The company’s potential $1.5 trillion valuation should not be confused with the amount it intends to raise through its IPO, he noted.

Anthropic’s preliminary registration statement does not specify the offering size or share price.

IPO research firm Renaissance Capital estimates the company could raise approximately $75 billion, potentially making it one of the largest public offerings in history.

Ahn expects the listing to have a more direct impact on other technology offerings competing for institutional capital than on crypto assets.

He said the timing of the transaction and Anthropic’s potential inclusion in major stock indexes could also influence capital flows.

To better assess the risks, Ahn said investors need greater disclosure of Anthropic’s aggregate infrastructure commitments, payments due over the next 12 months and the financial relationships between the company and its major partners.

He identified several indicators that could signal growing pressure on the AI infrastructure market, including cloud providers struggling to secure financing, increased use of Broadcom’s convertible facility, cancellations of major capacity agreements and suppliers being required to fulfill customer financing guarantees.

Ahn emphasized that these are risks to monitor rather than evidence that an industrywide financial unwind is underway.