Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Stuck In The Doldrums
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- Bitcoin price expected to remain under selling pressure below $3,660 level.
- $3,100 is the major technical zone to watch this week for further downside in the BTCUSD pair
- Bearish pattern suggests medium-term downside objective has already been reached
BTCUSD Short-term price analysis
In the short-term, the BTCUSD pair should remain under downside pressure while trading below the $3,660 level. Any sustained moves back above the $3,660 level are likely to eventually test towards the $3,960 to $4,000 resistance levels.
The $3,485-90 support area is the key area to watch for further declines in the BTCUSD pair over the mentioned time horizon, due to this important technical area being the lowest trading point for the BTC/USD pair so far this year.
A sustained loss of this region and we should expect a test of the $3,300 level, with the $3,100 level by far the most technically significant area just below.
Pattern Watch
After a period of consolidation the BTCUSD has broken below the well-defined descending triangle pattern, which has formed across various lower time frames and holds an approximate $400.00 projected drop.
Key Moving Averages
The BTCUSD pair is trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages on the reliable four-hour time horizon, which is suggestive of short-term weakness.
The 50-period moving average has crossed over the 200-period moving average, which is a bearish sign, but more significant on the daily time frame, hence its nickname, A Death Cross, when the 50-day crosses the 200-day.
MACD & Volume
The MACD indicator on the four-hour time frame is trending lower, after spending over one-week holding in positive territory. The indicator is trending lower alongside price itself, with no price divergence currently apparent.
The volume indicator is showing that the recent sell-off has been on weak trading volumes, which is generally indicative of the trading action seen in the BTCUSD pair over a ten-day period.
BTCUSD Medium-term price analysis
In the medium-term the BTCUSD pair is bearish while trading below the $4,400-$4,600 levels. The $4,400 level represents a former key swing-high that Bitcoin buyers recently failed to break, while the $4,600 level represents the BTCUSD pairs 100-day moving average, which aside from a key calculation of closing prices is also an important sentimental gauge.
Daily price closes back the BTCUSD pairs 50-day should be watched carefully, especially if this recent decline starts to lose bearish momentum.
The $3,100 level is the key downside level to watch over the medium-term, predominately because it is the 2018 trading level and the actual completion point of the projected target of the large head and shoulders pattern.
A loss of the $3,100 should spark selling towards at least the $3,000-$2,900 levels, with the former important weekly low, at $2,500 the major support zone protecting the $2,200 level.
Pattern Watch
The formation of a bullish double-double bottom pattern should be watched carefully, as it may trigger heavy buying interest if bears fail to break the $3,100 level.
The immediate pattern to watch on the daily charts is the well-flagged descending triangle, with a $400 downside projection, that would take price close to the 2018 low if successfully achieved.
Key Moving Averages
Aside from illustrating the key recovery points on the BTCUSD daily chart extremely well, the overall trend remains bearish as price trades below the 50,100 and 200-day moving averages.
A bearish cross over is still underway, so currently buyers have few reasons to be bullish.
Moving Average + Volume
The Daily MACD indicator is trending lower, but not definitively so, while trading volumes over a 20-day period are in continuous decline, which may give longer-term bulls some hope over the horizon.
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