Glassnode says Bitcoin remains capped by $88K holder cost basis despite declining selling pressure

Bitcoin faces growing resistance near $88,000 as exchange traded funds return to net selling and higher US inflation weighs on market sentiment, according to a new report from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.

In its October 14 report, Glassnode identified the $80,000 to $81,500 range as a critical support zone, while investors who purchased Bitcoin over the past two years continue to create selling pressure above current prices.

The report comes as Bitcoin struggles to recover following September’s hotter than expected inflation data, which strengthened expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate increase.

Despite these pressures, Glassnode said several onchain indicators suggest the market is entering an early recovery phase, with long term holders reducing their losses and Bitcoin trading above important valuation levels.

Bitcoin faces resistance at $88K as ETF outflows accelerate

Glassnode identified two groups of investors holding Bitcoin above current prices.

Investors who purchased BTC between six and twelve months ago have an average cost basis near $88,000. Meanwhile, those who bought between one and two years ago have a cost basis around $100,000.

Both levels have rejected previous rallies this year. Bitcoin approached the first in January before falling more than 33%. It also tested the second in May before declining roughly 25%.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin must recover $88,000 to overcome selling pressure from investors seeking to exit positions near their original purchase prices.

At the same time, institutional demand has weakened.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $3 billion in net inflows between September 21 and October 6, marking their strongest buying period since November 2025.

However, that momentum reversed on October 7. The funds subsequently recorded approximately $760 million in net outflows, removing a major source of demand from the market.

Glassnode said a sustained return of ETF inflows would provide stronger confirmation that buyers are absorbing the selling pressure.

Bitcoin holds $80K support as long term holder losses decline

Despite weakening ETF demand, Bitcoin continues to hold key support levels. The average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs stands near $81,500, a level Bitcoin briefly lost on October 8 and 13 before recovering.

Glassnode also identified significant buying orders around $80,000 on Binance, while the True Market Mean sits near $78,000. A break below $80,000 could trigger further liquidations, while a move toward $88,000 could force short sellers to close positions. However, sustained gains would require stronger spot demand.

Meanwhile, selling pressure from long term holders has eased. Their realized losses have fallen 85% since peaking on August 12.

At Bitcoin’s June low, roughly twelve coins were sold at a loss for every coin sold at a profit. That ratio has since reversed, with profitable sales outnumbering loss making sales by four to one.

Glassnode said the shift resembles previous market recoveries. Unlike the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, Bitcoin has also avoided closing below its Realized Price, the average acquisition cost of coins in circulation. Even at its June 30 low, Bitcoin remained about 10% above that level.

Hot inflation data adds pressure ahead of Fed decision

The latest Glassnode assessment follows a stronger than expected US inflation report that raised concerns about further monetary tightening.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, September’s Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% from the previous month and 3.7% annually, exceeding market forecasts.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually.

The figures increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again after delivering a 25 basis point increase in September.

The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for October 28, followed by the US midterm elections on November 3.

Meanwhile, Glassnode also identified growing speculative activity across individual altcoins.

Its Altcoin Froth Indicator showed elevated leverage among individual tokens since late September, although marketwide speculative activity remained relatively subdued.

The divergence suggests that pockets of the altcoin market could face concentrated liquidations if Bitcoin loses its $80,000 support.

For Bitcoin, Glassnode identified two levels that could determine the next major move.

A sustained recovery above $88,000, supported by renewed ETF inflows, would suggest that buyers are absorbing overhead selling pressure.

However, a break below $80,000 could expose Bitcoin to further declines toward the True Market Mean near $78,000.