Goldman Sachs warns state moratoria could hit 45% of US data center capacity

The AI infrastructure boom has spent the past few years outrunning just about every constraint: chips, power, transformers, patience. Now it may be running into something slower. State politics.

Goldman Sachs estimates that states likely to tighten their rules on data centers hold about 45% of planned US capacity. That puts nearly half the pipeline in places where the welcome mat could get rolled up, at least for a while.

The warning follows the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, which delivered significant Democratic gains in several key states. Wall Street is now busy doing what it does best after a political shock: putting a number on it.

Everyone brought a spreadsheet

Goldman’s 45% figure is one estimate among several. Barclays found that 80% of the roughly 300 GW pipeline it classifies as “high probability” will sit in states with a Democratic governor next year.

Cleanview landed in similar territory. It reports that about 158.6 GW, or 41% of the national data center pipeline, is in states where incoming governors have pledged pauses.

Those governors-elect campaigned on taking a breather to review the inputs that make data centers controversial: water use, power supply, tax incentives and permitting.

Goldman analysts expect that new Democratic governors or legislatures could impose temporary moratoria or stricter regulations. They point to states such as Texas, Georgia and Michigan as examples.

Texas is the heavyweight in this conversation. It accounts for roughly 25% of total planned US data center capacity on its own.

Announced is not the same as built

The headline capacity numbers come with an important asterisk. US data center developers have announced 586 gigawatts of capacity, but only 199 gigawatts are being built.

That works out to roughly a third of announced capacity actually moving dirt. The rest exists, for now, as press releases, site plans and investor decks.

Goldman flagged exactly that distinction. The bank expects that near-term delays may still hit unpermitted projects, even if the broader trajectory holds.

Voters were already sending signals

The governor races are not the only sign of friction. Local ballot measures in November 2026 showed substantial support for restrictions on data centers, adding another layer of complexity for operators.

Markets noticed. Equities tied to AI infrastructure and utilities came under pressure as investors weighed the prospect of delays in some of the country’s biggest buildout regions.

Goldman is not calling the end of the boom

Despite the warning, Goldman’s overall stance stays constructive. The bank maintains a positive long-term outlook for US data center growth and views any restrictions on development as likely temporary.

Goldman’s outlook remains upbeat through 2027. The underlying logic is that political pressure may slow approvals without significantly denting long-run demand for computing capacity.

What this means

For investors in AI infrastructure, the near-term question is less about whether data centers get built and more about where and when. With Texas alone representing roughly a quarter of planned capacity, and estimates ranging from 41% to 45% of the pipeline sitting in states with potential pauses, geography has suddenly become a risk factor rather than a footnote.

Developers with permitted, under-construction projects look better positioned than those still holding paper announcements. The 199 GW actually being built is the more defensible slice of the 586 GW total.

The things to watch are concrete. First, whether incoming governors actually follow through on campaign pledges once in office, and how long any pause lasts. Second, how states define the scope of a review: a narrow look at water and permitting is very different from a broad freeze. Third, whether the local ballot-measure trend spreads to more counties and cities.