IEA warns Europe of jet fuel shortage in six weeks due to Hormuz blockade

The International Energy Agency warned Europe may face a jet fuel shortage in six weeks due to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 6% YES, down from 12% a week ago.

The IEA’s warning moved prediction markets further toward pessimism on a near-term resolution. The April 30 market is at 6% YES, while the May 31 market is at 83% YES. The 76-point gap between the two contracts implies traders expect a specific catalyst sometime in mid-May.

Liquidity is thin. Daily volume is $13,824 USDC, and the largest single move has been a 2-point spike. The April 30 market requires only $621 to move 5 points, making it vulnerable to volatility from any large trade.

The IEA’s six-week jet fuel warning and the blockade’s persistence point to a real supply disruption, not noise. At 6¢, a YES share on April 30 pays $1 if traffic normalizes by then, a 16.6x return. That payout prices in a bet on rapid diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden military de-escalation, both low-probability events given current conditions.

Watch for moves by Trump, CENTCOM, and the IRGC Navy. Any diplomatic engagement or change in naval posture could shift these markets quickly given the low liquidity.