Saraya Awliya al-Dam, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia, warned of renewed attacks as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire nears its end. The market for military action against Iran ending by April 2 has collapsed to 4% YES, down from 36% a week ago.

The April 2 date market now prices a diplomatic resolution as extremely unlikely. The April 30 date holds at a steady 1.9% YES. This term structure shows traders see little chance of a quick resolution at any near-term deadline.

The militia warning hasn’t changed expectations for diplomatic meetings. The meetings with Iran by April 30 market sits at 22.4% YES, unchanged from yesterday. Traders aren’t treating this as a shift in diplomatic prospects.

These markets are thin. Actual USDC traded on the April 2 date runs $21,279/day, and the largest 24-hour move was a 7-point spike. Just $511 can move the April 2 odds by 5 points, so price action here reflects low liquidity more than broad consensus.

This is positioning, not a genuine shift. A YES share at 4¢ pays $1 if military action ends by April 2, a 25x return. But with the militia’s warning, traders are betting against a peaceful resolution soon. For odds to move, the market would need verifiable ceasefire extensions or high-level diplomatic engagement.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or diplomatic activity in Oman and Qatar. Clear signals from these players could stabilize or move the market fast.

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