Iran’s top negotiator blames the US for stalled talks on the Strait of Hormuz blockade, calling reopening “impossible.” The odds of Trump announcing a blockade lift by May 31 sit at 76% YES, down from 82% yesterday.

The market has 38 days to resolution. The 6-point drop follows Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s comments, which signal no imminent resolution. The move from 82% to 76% shows traders recalibrating expectations based on Iran’s stance.

Volume at $27,582 in real USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with $8,549 needed to move the market by 5 points. That’s moderate liquidity, enough for some price stability when news hits. The largest move was a 3-point drop early morning, likely a direct reaction to Ghalibaf’s statement.

Iran’s blame game points to ongoing deadlock. Traders reading Iran’s rhetoric as a sign the blockade will persist are betting against a quick resolution. At 76¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade is lifted, a 1.32x return. To profit, you’d need to believe in an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough.

Watch for direct statements from Trump or the Pentagon. A shift in US policy or a change in Iran’s tone could move this market fast.

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