Iran blames US for stalled Hormuz talks, reopening deemed “impossible”

Iran’s top negotiator blames the US for stalled talks on the Strait of Hormuz blockade, calling reopening “impossible.” The odds of Trump announcing a blockade lift by May 31 sit at 76% YES, down from 82% yesterday.

The market has 38 days to resolution. The 6-point drop follows Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s comments, which signal no imminent resolution. The move from 82% to 76% shows traders recalibrating expectations based on Iran’s stance.

Volume at $27,582 in real USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with $8,549 needed to move the market by 5 points. That’s moderate liquidity, enough for some price stability when news hits. The largest move was a 3-point drop early morning, likely a direct reaction to Ghalibaf’s statement.

Iran’s blame game points to ongoing deadlock. Traders reading Iran’s rhetoric as a sign the blockade will persist are betting against a quick resolution. At 76¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade is lifted, a 1.32x return. To profit, you’d need to believe in an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough.

Watch for direct statements from Trump or the Pentagon. A shift in US policy or a change in Iran’s tone could move this market fast.

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