Iran closes Strait of Hormuz as Houthis threaten Bab al-Mandeb Strait

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz while the Houthis threaten the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April is at 1.2% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The potential closure of both straits threatens global oil supply, but WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April remains at 1.2% YES with little movement. The market is thin: only $316 in daily USDC volume. It takes $2,188 to move the price 5 points, meaning low liquidity and high volatility potential.

The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 5.9% YES, down from 16% yesterday. With only two days left, traders see slim chances for a resolution. The largest move was a 4-point spike at 4:27 PM, a sign of volatile sentiment as the deadline approaches.

Why it matters

Closing both straits would disrupt global trade routes, push oil prices higher, and strain economies dependent on those shipping lanes. The peace deal’s falling odds suggest traders doubt a quick diplomatic fix. At 1.2¢, a YES share pays $1 if WTI hits $160 by April’s end, an 83x return. That bet requires believing in a sharp escalation beyond what current prices reflect.

What to watch

Statements from Trump and Iranian leadership could shift both markets quickly. The next US-Iran talks update or a sudden military maneuver in either strait would be the most direct catalyst.

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