Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, halting ship transit and trapping sailors

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted transit, trapping thousands of sailors and making it near-certain that fewer than 10 ships transit the chokepoint between April 13 and 19. The market for this scenario is at 0.4% YES.

For the fewer than 10 ships transit market, the odds overwhelmingly favor YES resolution. With only one day left and no vessels allowed through, traders treat this as a done deal. The market has been static, with just $14 in actual USDC moving it, suggesting no meaningful bets against the outcome.

The market for UK warships transiting the Strait has more activity. It sits at 8.5%, down from 12% a day ago. The closure and reports of gunfire raise the likelihood of military intervention, but no official deployment has been confirmed. Volume is $5,648 in actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours.

The broader market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 fell hard, now at 26% YES, down from 51% a day ago. The likelihood of Iran reopening the Strait soon looks low, and the odds reflect that. Volume at $65,440 in actual USDC traded, this is where traders are pricing in prolonged disruption.

Iran’s closure weaponizes the Strait as an economic tool, making this a strategic escalation beyond the military dimension. A YES share in the “fewer than 10 ships” market at 0.4¢ pays $1, a 250x return if it resolves. Traders banking on a quick resolution need to reassess; Iran’s actions suggest a prolonged standoff.

Watch for announcements from CENTCOM, the UK Ministry of Defence, or moves by allied navies. A shift in military or diplomatic posture could swing these markets fast.

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