Iran’s Foreign Ministry says US statements don’t reflect negotiation realities, casting doubt on a peace deal by April 22. The likelihood of a peace agreement now sits at 28.5% YES.
Market reaction
Iran’s dismissal of US statements has also moved markets focused on diplomatic meetings and sanctions relief. The odds for no US-Iran meeting by June 30 are at 2.1% YES, unchanged from previous levels. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is at 64% YES, up from 34% a day ago.
Why it matters
The peace deal market dropped sharply, with April 22 odds falling from 24% to 14.5% after Iran’s statement. This market has the highest activity at $1.49M/day face value and $259K/day in actual USDC traded. The term structure beyond April tells a different story: June 30 odds sit at 75.5% YES, suggesting traders see the April timeline as too aggressive rather than the deal itself as dead.
The oil sanction relief market has stayed stable, trading $7,909 in actual USDC over the last 24 hours, with a $286 cost to move the price by 5 points. Low volume and a thin order book point to traders waiting for a concrete signal before committing.
What to watch
A YES share at 28.5¢ pays $1 if a deal is signed by April 22, a 6.67x return. Given the current diplomatic stalemate, this bet is highly speculative. Watch for Vice President J.D. Vance’s next moves or announcements from US Central Command. Any new diplomatic engagements confirmed by the White House or Iranian Foreign Ministry could move these markets fast.
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