Iran halts talks with US as envoys head to Pakistan

Iran has announced no further talks with the US are planned, even as American envoys head to Pakistan. The likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurring by April 24 now sits at 0.1% YES, down from 1% yesterday.

Market reaction

The April 24 contract is essentially dead. The April 25 and April 26 markets show a slight uptick to 3.5% and 23.6% YES, respectively. April 26 dropped 19 points, which suggests traders doubt any immediate progress.

Why it matters

The likelihood of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurring by June 30 has increased, with that market at 7.1% YES. Odds for a permanent peace deal by April 30 in the US-Iran permanent peace deal market have fallen to 9.5% YES, a 20% drop from a week ago.

Actual USDC traded in the meeting dates market is just $1,042, with order book depth showing as little as $3 needed to move the April 26 price 5 points. This thin liquidity makes sharp price swings likely on any news.

What to watch

The contrarian play is buying YES at 9.5¢ for a potential 10.5x payout if a deal is announced, though this is high-risk given the current breakdown in communication. Statements from Steve Witkoff or Abbas Araghchi, or any changes in US envoy travel plans, could move these markets quickly.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.