The Iranian army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have launched significant missile and drone attacks on what they described as enemy bases in the region, according to reports from Iranian media. This military action is reportedly in response to continuing U.S. attacks on Iran. This escalation comes in the context of the ongoing 2026 Iran war, where recent U.S. airstrikes targeted over 80 Iranian sites following a collapse of the ceasefire on July 8. The new developments suggest a pronounced shift toward direct retaliation by Iran against U.S. assets and potentially Gulf state locations, as tensions in the region continue to mount.

Key Takeaways

• The missile and drone attacks by Iran appear to increase the likelihood of military action against a Gulf state, as suggested by market movements.
• Current market pricing indicates a significant rise in expectations for Iranian military action on July 13, with the odds at 82% YES, compared to previous days.
• The Iran military action market on July 12 also shows a strong indication of potential conflict, with the odds priced at 69.5% YES.

What to Watch

Observers will be monitoring announcements from Iranian and U.S. officials that could further clarify the scope of Iran’s military intentions. Any military responses from Gulf states or escalations by the United States could further influence market perceptions. The evolving geopolitical landscape in the region will be closely watched for any signs suggesting a de-escalation or further intensification of conflict.

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