Iran rearms missiles, blocks Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire challenge

Iran has rearmed its missile systems and blocked the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the current ceasefire. The odds of Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by May 31 are at 82%, down from 90% yesterday.

Market reaction

The May 31 sub-market dropped 12 points. The April 19 sub-market is now at 8%, down from 28% 24 hours ago. The term structure shows a 70-point spread between April 19 and May 31, meaning traders expect a resolution closer to the latter date. Sub-markets have combined trading volumes of $114,885 in face value, with actual USDC traded at $29,602. It takes just $1,419 to move the May 31 market 5 points, a thin order book vulnerable to large trades.

Why it matters

Iran’s rearming directly undermines the ceasefire and raises the probability of Trump declaring it broken. The US-Iran ceasefire market is now at 21.0% YES, up from 8% yesterday. At 18¢, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire is declared broken by April 21, a 5.56x return.

What to watch

Any statements from Trump or the Pentagon matter here. A shift in language from “de-escalation” to “enforcement” could push these markets further. The Pentagon’s next briefing and Trump’s social media posts are the most likely sources for signals on the blockade’s direction.

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