Iran restricts Strait of Hormuz traffic, US blockade lift uncertain

Iran’s decision to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after briefly reopening it has traders reconsidering the likelihood of a US blockade lift. Odds for Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 are now at 78% YES, down from 90% a day ago.

The market dropped 5 points at 12:19 PM yesterday. The 78% for May 31 reflects trader skepticism about a near-term resolution. The April 19 market now sits at just 8% YES as that deadline looms.

Meanwhile, odds on the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30 ticked up slightly to 8.5% YES from 8% a week ago. This market is thin: $1,412 in daily USDC volume and only $304 needed to shift odds by 5 points.

The blockade market moved $29,602 in USDC over the last 24 hours. A 5-point move costs $1,419, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest single move was a 6-point drop at 6:05 PM yesterday.

Current odds point to skepticism about quick de-escalation. The naval confrontations between the US and Iran suggest the blockade continues. At 78¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade by May 31, a potential 1.28x return. That bet requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough happens within 43 days.

Watch for developments in the Islamabad negotiations and any official statements from Trump or Iranian officials. These will directly move the market.

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