Iranian gunboats deter shipping in Strait of Hormuz ahead of ceasefire expiry

Iranian gunboats and IRGC radio warnings have deterred commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between April 13-19 to 0.4% YES, up from 0% yesterday.

The market for fewer than 10 ships by April 19 saw a modest 2-point spike early this morning but hasn’t moved much beyond that. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 has dropped from 51% to 22.5% YES over the past 24 hours, a far sharper reaction.

The April 19 market trades at just $14 USDC per day, meaning $12 is enough to move the price 5 points. The April 30 market, though down sharply, has $16,360 in daily USDC volume, which points to real conviction among traders that the IRGC’s actions will suppress transit counts through the end of the month.

Iran’s shipping deterrence is a direct escalation ahead of the April 22 ceasefire expiry. Buying YES at 22¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 4.5x return. That bet requires believing in a diplomatic resolution or a change in military posture within 12 days.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or Iran’s Foreign Ministry before the April 22 ceasefire expiry. Either could move both markets quickly.