Israel’s Shayetet 13 conducts first Lebanon naval raid since 2000

Israel’s elite naval unit Shayetet 13 carried out a seaborne invasion of Naqoura, Lebanon on April 14, 2026, the first such operation since 2000. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market now sits at 94% YES.

Ceasefire expectations have been dented by this military escalation. The April 30 market is at 94% YES, up sharply from 45% a week ago. The June 30 market remains at 96.9% YES. The term structure suggests traders think a ceasefire is more likely later than sooner, with a 3-point spread over 61 days.

Volume is at $1.2M/day in actual USDC, with $61,544 required to move the April 30 odds by 5 points. The largest recent move was a 13-point spike at 1:16 PM, likely driven by news of the Israeli raid.

The Shayetet 13 raid is the most direct Israeli naval action in Lebanon in over two decades, yet ceasefire probability remains high. Traders appear to expect negotiations to gain traction regardless. A YES share at 94¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire is declared by April 30, a modest return that implies limited downside risk.

Watch for statements from Netanyahu or Hezbollah’s Naim Qassem. Any formal confirmation of negotiations or mediator involvement could shift momentum. Pete Hegseth’s next briefing matters here; any U.S. involvement in brokering peace would move these odds.

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