J.P. Morgan analysts now say the Clarity Act negotiations are nearing a breakthrough. The Polymarket contract for XRP reaching $2.60 by April sits at 0.8% YES, down from 1% a week ago.

Markets are not responding to the news with much conviction. The XRP price in April contract holds at 0.8% YES. The shorter-term XRP reaching $2.00 between April 13-19 contract is at 1.0% YES. The flat reaction reflects both how slow legislative processes are and where trader sentiment sits right now.

Trading volumes are almost nonexistent. Combined 24-hour USDC volume for the April market is $1, with $245 needed to move the price 5 percentage points. The April 13-19 market is even thinner: $1 in actual USDC traded and $292 required to shift odds by 5 points. Traders are clearly waiting for something more concrete before committing capital.

J.P. Morgan’s report is credible but not enough on its own to move these markets. At 0.8¢, a YES share for XRP reaching $2.60 in April pays $1 if it resolves, a 125x return. That’s real upside if the legislative path clears quickly. But with only 14 days left in April, the market wants more than a report about negotiations.

Watch the Senate Banking Committee. Any move to advance the Clarity Act from markup, or SEC announcements related to XRP’s regulatory status, could shift these odds fast.

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