Kalshi attracts Gen Z traders seeking quick gains in prediction markets

Thomas Carvo studied meteorology. Now he puts that training to work by trading on tomorrow’s weather in various cities through Kalshi, the prediction market where users can wager on almost anything.

Who is actually trading

The demographic skew is hard to miss. A survey from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Kagan unit found that more than 60% of participants on Kalshi and Polymarket are under 35.

Sports contracts ranked as the favorite category among those users.

The menu goes well beyond the scoreboard. Kalshi lists contracts on questions like who will become President Donald Trump’s next press secretary and when NASA will next put astronauts on the moon.

Think of each contract as a yes-or-no question with a price attached. If you think the market is underestimating the odds, you buy. If the event happens, you get paid. If it doesn’t, your stake is gone.

The youngest users are moving serious money. CNN reported that traders aged 18 to 21 were responsible for roughly $5.4 billion in trading activity on Kalshi through August 2026.

That sits inside a much bigger pie. Kalshi’s total trading volume surpassed $170 billion year-to-date by August 2026, so the college-age cohort is a slice, but a meaningful one.

The domain-expert playbook

Carvo, 28, represents a particular type of prediction market trader. Rather than chasing hunches, he leans on specialized knowledge that most of the market lacks. He has also profited from contracts tied to the 2024 Trump election.

Carvo frames his approach as a long-term commitment rather than a quick score.

Guardrails arrive

The surge in young users has raised red flags about addiction and financial losses. Kalshi has responded with a handful of safeguards aimed at its youngest customers.

On October 27, 2026, the company introduced a default monthly deposit limit of $2,500 for traders aged 18 to 20. Kalshi has also teamed up with youth safety organizations to push responsible trading habits.

Kalshi built its business as a prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that oversees futures and derivatives. Its model centers on regulated event contracts settled in dollars.

The crypto side of the coin

Polymarket, Kalshi’s main rival in this space, runs on a different engine entirely. It operates on blockchain rails and uses pUSD, an ERC-20 token backed by the USDC stablecoin, as collateral for trades.

For the uninitiated, ERC-20 is the standard format for tokens on Ethereum. USDC is a dollar-pegged stablecoin, meaning each token is designed to stay worth one dollar. So Polymarket users are still betting in dollar terms, just with crypto plumbing underneath.

Kalshi, by contrast, sticks with a traditional cash model.