Kalshi investigates suspicious trades tied to Trump’s press secretary pick
Three small bets on Katie Zacharia, placed shortly before her appointment was announced, stood to pay out more than $9,500 combined
Kalshi, the prediction market platform regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is investigating a cluster of bets on who would become the next White House press secretary. The bets backed Katie Zacharia, and they landed shortly before she was named to the role.
Before the announcement, Zacharia’s odds on Kalshi sat at approximately 1%, according to the Wall Street Journal. Then a few traders put money on her. Then she got the job.
A $19 bet with a 100x payoff
Zacharia was revealed as the appointee on October 9, 2026, through a post on Truth Social. The Wall Street Journal reported the Kalshi investigation the same day.
Three trades are drawing attention. The first was a $19 wager placed late on October 8, which stood to return $1,896.
The other two came on October 9, just minutes before the announcement. One was a bet of about $74 that could have returned $3,689. The other was about $80, with a potential payout of $4,023.
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Add it up and the three bets total less than $175 in stakes. Their potential combined payouts top $9,500.
A Kalshi representative confirmed the investigation but offered little detail. The company framed the probe as part of its broader effort to protect market integrity.
Not the first time a Trump insider has landed in the spotlight
This is not Kalshi’s first brush with possible insider trading. The platform has previously referred similar matters to the CFTC, the federal regulator that oversees it.
The closest parallel came in July 2026. That month, a CFTC probe focused on Trump’s teleprompter operator and trades tied to the content of Trump’s speeches. Profits from those trades were frozen.
What this means for prediction markets
For now, several questions remain open. It is not yet known who placed the three Zacharia trades, or whether Kalshi will refer the matter to the CFTC as it has with similar cases before. Kalshi has not said whether any payouts have been held back.