Analysts warn Metaās Muse could threaten Appleās $10B revenue stream
A Bank of America note flags Meta's new AI agent as a potential drain on the App Store economics that power Apple's services business
Apple has spent years defending its App Store toll booth against regulators, developers and rivals. Now the newest challenger is not a lawsuit but a chatbot that books flights.
Meta’s personal AI agent, Muse, may cut into Apple’s subscription revenue by up to $10 billion, according to CNBC’s reporting. The concern is that the agent could reroute app store payments and pull developer engagement away from Apple’s ecosystem.
What Bank of America is worried about
The warning gained traction through an investor note dated September 29, 2026, from Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan. His argument centers on where user activity actually begins.
Mohan cautioned that AI agents like Muse could redirect what he described as:
“discovery, referral, and transaction initiation”
Those three steps are the front door to commerce on a smartphone. If someone asks an AI agent to find, compare and buy something, they may never open the app where Apple would normally collect its cut.
That cut matters. Apple typically takes a 30% commission on App Store transactions, a structure that has long made its services segment one of the company’s most reliable profit engines.
Investors took the note seriously. Apple shares slipped roughly 2 to 2.5% around September 29 and 30, following the disclosure.
Still, Bank of America did not abandon the stock. The bank kept its Buy rating on Apple, along with a price target of $370.
How Muse works, and why it is different
Meta launched Muse on September 8, 2026, as a personal AI agent designed to handle everyday chores. Users can hand it tasks like shopping, booking travel and filling out forms.
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The agent leans on integrations with major commerce players. It connects with Shopify and Shop Pay, Expedia and PayPal, giving it hooks into retail checkout, travel reservations and payments.
One notable gap: Muse has been blocked from accessing Amazon. That is a meaningful hole for any agent pitching itself as a shopping assistant.
Muse runs from a secure virtual machine inside Meta’s cloud, rather than relying entirely on the user’s phone. It can keep executing tasks in the background even when it is not actively on screen.
That architecture means the heavy lifting happens outside the iPhone’s app framework. Apple controls the device, but the transaction may effectively happen somewhere else.
Early adoption has been brisk. Estimates put Muse at somewhere between 2.5 and 3.4 million downloads in its first two weeks. It also climbed to the top of the US App Store free apps chart shortly after release.
Meta’s expansion plans
Meta is not keeping Muse confined to phones. As of September 17 to 18, 2026, the company had plans to bring Muse to a Mac application.
Meta also aims to integrate Muse into future glasses hardware. That fits a broader pattern of the company trying to build computing surfaces it controls, rather than renting space on someone else’s platform.
Why this matters beyond one note
Analysts noted that agents could end up dictating merchant relationships and capturing routing economics, independent of traditional app store revenue.
Apple’s services business has historically supported its valuation and growth story, and much of that narrative assumes the App Store remains the default gateway for mobile commerce.
What investors and developers should watch
The up to $10 billion figure is a ceiling, not a forecast of what will happen. How much of that risk materializes depends on whether consumers actually change habits and start delegating purchases to agents at scale.
Download estimates of 2.5 to 3.4 million are a strong start, but sustained daily use will matter far more than launch-week curiosity.
Muse already plugs into Shopify, Expedia and PayPal, while Amazon has kept it out. Whether more merchants open their doors, or follow Amazon in closing them, will shape how useful the agent becomes.
Meta’s push onto the Mac and into future glasses adds another wrinkle. Each new surface gives Muse a way to reach users that does not route through Apple’s phone storefront at all.