Nebius plans $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027 capex, leaning on customer prepayments

Nebius Group plans to spend $40 billion to $45 billion on capital expenditures in 2027. That is a budget usually associated with the largest names in tech, not a company still working toward profitability.

The AI cloud infrastructure provider laid out the forecast in its Q3 2026 shareholder letter, issued on November 12, 2026. What makes the plan stand out is less the size of the spending than who is helping pay for it: Nebius’s own customers, through prepayments on their contracts.

The numbers behind the build-out

Nebius, which is headquartered in Amsterdam and trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker NBIS, says the 2027 spending is aimed at expanding its capacity by over 1 GW.

The 2027 range is a sharp step up from this year. Nebius now puts its 2026 capex at approximately $27 billion, compared with a previous estimate of $20 billion to $25 billion.

On the revenue side, Nebius expects 2027 sales of $12 billion to $13 billion. The company frames that as nearly a fourfold increase over what it expects for 2026.

It is also targeting pre-tax breakeven by Q4 2027.

Customers are paying up front

Nebius’s answer leans heavily on prepayments. The company says $10 billion in prepayments was committed in 2026, and it projects that figure will rise to $17 billion to $20 billion in 2027.

The trend inside the year is notable. In Q3 2026, prepayments covered more than 100% of the associated contract-related capex. In Q2, that coverage stood at 50% to 60%.

The research also points to an asset-backed financing strategy alongside the prepayments.

Microsoft, Meta and a growing backlog

Nebius says its overall commitments exceed $40 billion. The largest piece is a deal with Microsoft worth approximately $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion. The company also has multiple agreements with Meta.

Demand has not slowed since the quarter closed. New contract value signed since Q3 2026 has surpassed $12 billion, according to the company.

The current results back up the momentum. Nebius reported Q3 2026 revenue of $981 million, representing 571% year-over-year growth.

What this means

For investors, the headline capex figure matters less than the funding mix. Prepayments covering more than 100% of contract-related capex in Q3 change that calculation, at least for the contracted portion of the build-out.

The concentration risk deserves equal attention. With a single Microsoft deal accounting for approximately $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion of more than $40 billion in total commitments, a meaningful share of Nebius’s backlog depends on one customer.

What to watch next: whether the projected $17 billion to $20 billion in 2027 prepayments materializes, how quickly the new contract value converts into recognized revenue, and whether the 2027 capex range holds or gets revised again.