Ukraine’s Military Intelligence has reported that over 550 Chinese troops have been trained in Russia as part of ongoing bilateral military internships. These initiatives are said to be occurring regularly, with recent figures indicating that over 180 Russian troops were also trained in China in November 2025. This revelation comes amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where Russia continues its military operations. The cooperation between China and Russia may suggest a strengthening of their military partnership, which could potentially impact the dynamics on the ground in Ukraine.

Key Takeaways

• The report of Chinese troops being trained in Russia suggests enhanced military cooperation, which may indicate increased Russian military capabilities.
• This development appears consistent with scenarios where Ukraine’s defenses face greater challenges, potentially affecting the likelihood of Russia capturing strategic locations like Lyman.
• Market pricing suggests participants view this increased cooperation as a factor that could slightly decrease the odds of Ukraine successfully holding Lyman.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any further military collaborations or strategic maneuvers between China and Russia, as these could influence the conflict in Ukraine. Key indicators will include official statements from the Russian and Chinese defense ministries, as well as intelligence from Western agencies regarding military movements. The impact of these developments on the prediction markets related to Russia’s military objectives, such as the capture of Lyman, will also be crucial to watch. Any significant changes in the military situation could lead to shifts in market pricing and perceived probabilities.

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