Pakistan is working to extend the US-Iran ceasefire before its April 22, 2026 expiration, but the ceasefire extension market has dropped to 23.5% YES, down from 69% a week ago.
## Market reaction
In Islamabad, Pakistan is trying to bring both US and Iranian delegations to the table. The ceasefire extension market has $264,370 in daily USDC volume. The largest price move was a 16-point drop from 54% to 38% at 2:54 PM, as traders grew more skeptical about an extension happening before the deadline. The April 21 contract sits at just 36% YES with one day left.
## Why it matters
The market for Trump announcing a ceasefire breach by April 21 is at 100% YES. Traders are pricing in near-certainty that tensions escalate regardless of Pakistan’s mediation.
The question is whether Pakistan can get both sides to agree before the deadline. At 36¢, buying YES on a ceasefire extension pays $1 if successful, a 2.78x return. Anyone taking that bet is betting Pakistan can close a deal in less than 24 hours.
## What to watch
Announcements from Pakistani officials or tweets from President Trump. Any confirmation of progress, or lack of it, will move these markets fast.
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