Polymarket traders put October Fed hike odds at 37%, with no change at 61%

Polymarket traders currently see a 37% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates in October. They put the odds of no change at 61%.

The contract in question tracks the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for October 27–28, 2026. The decision is expected at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28.

Pricing has moved around. As of September 30, 2026, Polymarket showed a 55.5–61.5% chance of no change and a 36.5–43.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. The latest reading of 61% for a hold and 37% for a hike sits at the top of the pause range and near the bottom of the hike range.

The contract is not a sleepy side bet. Trading volume on the October market has passed $17 million.

Resolution is simple. The contract settles based on the federal funds target rate decision stated in the official FOMC statement.

At its September 15–16, 2026 meeting, the committee voted unanimously to raise its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%.

Prediction markets are not operating in a vacuum here. Polymarket’s pricing for Fed outcomes often tracks CME fed funds futures. Kalshi, another prediction market, has shown pricing for the same October outcomes that lines up closely with both, with gaps usually within a few percentage points.

The key variable between now and October 28 is data. With over $17 million in volume on the line, this market has shown it reacts to incoming inflation and employment numbers. A hot inflation reading could push hike odds back toward the upper end of the recent range. A softer print could squeeze them further.

What to watch: the next inflation and jobs releases before the meeting, whether Polymarket’s hike odds break out of the 36.5–43.5% band seen at the end of September, and whether Kalshi and CME pricing keep moving in lockstep.