Oil exploration spending is expected to rise as SLB and Baker Hughes react to the ongoing Iran war’s impact on supply. The market for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 is at 1.4% YES, down from 2% 24 hours ago.
The indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to fuel supply concerns around crude oil hitting new highs. This market, although thinly traded, has a daily face value of $100,828 but only $2,513 in actual USDC changing hands, which means it’s sensitive to larger orders. It takes just $695 to move the odds by 5 points, making it vulnerable to volatility. Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 has ticked down slightly, suggesting trader skepticism about immediate supply escalation.
The WTI Crude Oil Price in April 2026 and Crude Oil Predictions for June markets have not moved meaningfully yet. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which halts about 9 million barrels per day, supports a bullish case for WTI potentially hitting $160 in April. With only 6 days left until resolution, any new developments could tip these odds.
Why it matters: The market’s pricing indicates caution despite the unprecedented supply disruption. A YES share at 1.4¢ for crude oil exceeding its all-time high by April 30 offers a $1 payout, a substantial return if global tensions escalate further. For this bet to pay off, traders need to believe in a major supply shock within the next 6 days, such as a permanent strait closure or significant attacks on oil infrastructure.
What to watch: Any announcements from the Trump administration regarding the Strait of Hormuz or OPEC+ production decisions could shift the odds. A move from the Iranian side, such as confirmed attacks on GCC tankers, would likely change the pricing quickly.
