Strait of Hormuz traffic halted amid US-Israel-Iran conflict

Strait of Hormuz traffic has ground to a halt due to the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war. The market on the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 sits at 2% YES, down from 10% just 24 hours ago.

The situation is moving multiple related markets. The UK warships market dropped 15% to 2% YES on stalled traffic and military risks. The Trump blockade announcement market prices a May 31 announcement at 72.5% YES.

The warships market is extremely thin: volume at $917 in daily USDC traded, with just $200 enough to shift odds by 5 points. A single large order could easily move the price.

Stalled traffic makes it less likely that any country risks sending warships through the area. The market is bearish on naval movements. For contrarian traders, buying YES at 2¢ pays 50x if a breakthrough occurs.

Watch for statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or shifts in Iranian military posture. A change in rhetoric or a diplomatic deal could move these odds quickly.

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