TrendForce forecasts PC DRAM prices to rise 13–18% in 4Q26 as notebook sales sagged in 3Q26

PC memory is still getting more expensive. It is just getting more expensive a little more slowly.

TrendForce, in a research update dated November 11, 2026, projects PC DRAM contract prices will climb 13% to 18% quarter-over-quarter in 4Q26. That is down from the 18% to 23% jump the firm tracked for 3Q26.

The research firm attributes the ongoing price increases to persistent supply tightness. Memory makers are steering production toward advanced DRAM nodes. Those nodes mostly serve server customers and high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, the specialized stacked chips that feed AI accelerators.

That would normally mean runaway price hikes for PC buyers. But demand on the consumer side has gone soft. TrendForce projects notebook shipments will drop by approximately 14% to 15.8% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q26, with a further decline expected in 4Q26.

Inventory data tells the same story. According to TrendForce, OEM DRAM inventory levels rose from six to nine weeks at the end of 3Q26 to seven to ten weeks in early 4Q26. The firm expects that stockpile to keep growing.

Weak PC sales and rising inventories are now acting as a brake on both PC DRAM and client SSD price increases, even as AI demand stays strong.

How PC makers got here

The setup traces back to earlier in 2026. PC original equipment manufacturers ramped up memory purchases ahead of expected price hikes, trying to lock in supply before costs climbed further.

TrendForce notes that more than a year of rising memory prices has put mounting cost pressure on the consumer electronics industry.

Now OEMs are reassessing. Some are planning to adjust memory procurement for 4Q26 and even into 1Q27. Others are considering leaning harder on private-label or white-label models that use downgraded components for better cost efficiency.

The broader memory picture

PC DRAM is only one slice of the market. TrendForce expects overall conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10% to 15% quarter-over-quarter in 4Q26.

NAND Flash, the storage chips inside SSDs and phones, looks even hotter. Its contract prices are projected to climb 15% to 20% quarter-over-quarter over the same period.

The supply side is also shifting for the year ahead. According to TrendForce, major suppliers, particularly Korean manufacturers, plan to cut PC DRAM output by more than 20% year-over-year in 2027. The goal is to prioritize server DRAM.