President Trump hinted at a deal to end the Iran war while U.S. allies prepare to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April market is at 30% YES, up from earlier levels when there was no clear diplomatic path.
## Market reaction
The odds reflect moderate confidence that Strait traffic could normalize soon. No active trades were recorded, but Trump’s comments and the planned allied meeting have shifted sentiment toward possible resolution. Traders are watching the April 30 resolution date, particularly as the U.S. ramps up crude imports from Asia to offset supply disruptions.
## Why it matters
VLCC traffic to the U.S. Gulf Coast points to a shift in oil logistics, with imports more than doubling from last year’s average. This is the U.S. production surge acting as a countermeasure to the Iranian blockade. The Strait remains the main bottleneck, and any concrete steps toward reopening it would move prices and market odds fast.
## What to watch
At 30¢, a YES share pays $1 if traffic normalizes by end of April, a 3.3x return. That bet requires a swift diplomatic breakthrough within two weeks. Without concrete actions from the April 17 meeting, the risk of a YES position stays high.
Track post-meeting announcements and any statements from Maersk or the IRGC. A change in Iran’s toll regime or naval movements in the Strait could move the odds quickly.
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