In a recent statement, former President Donald Trump announced that Iran and the militant group Hezbollah might be included in a sanctions bill currently under consideration by Congress. This development comes amid efforts to expand the Enhanced Iran Sanctions Act of 2025, which aims to codify existing measures against Hezbollah into permanent law. The potential inclusion of these entities in the sanctions bill suggests a continued hardline stance by the U.S. against Iran and its regional proxies, even as a 60-day ceasefire following the 2026 Iran war remains in effect. This move may impact ongoing negotiations related to Iran’s nuclear program and its support for militant groups.

Key Takeaways

• Market pricing suggests that the possibility of adding Iran and Hezbollah to the sanctions bill could decrease the likelihood of a US-Iran deal including reconstruction funding.
• The announcement appears consistent with a continuation of U.S. pressure on Iran’s proxy network, impacting the odds of a peace agreement.
• The current market odds reflect a decrease in confidence regarding the inclusion of reconstruction funding in a potential US-Iran deal, with the YES probability dropping from 29% to 27.5% in one of the sub-markets.

What to Watch

Markets will closely reflect any legislative progress on the sanctions bill in Congress, as its passage could further complicate US-Iran negotiations. Additionally, any official statements from Iranian officials or mediators could shift market dynamics significantly. Developments such as resumed military operations or changes in diplomatic engagements might alter the current pricing outlook, potentially affecting the likelihood of a US-Iran deal by the end of 2026.

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