Trump: Strait of Hormuz ‘completely open,’ Iran vows to keep it that way

Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open,” with Iran promising it will “never close” again. The odds for the US lifting its blockade by May 31 sit at 90% YES.

Market reaction

The sub-markets show a clear split between short-term and medium-term expectations. The April 19 market is at 17.5% YES, meaning traders are skeptical about an immediate resolution. The May 31 market at 82% shows far more confidence in eventual de-escalation. The gap between the two dates suggests traders expect developments over the next month, not the next few days.

Why it matters

Volume is $33,928 in USDC. Of that, $3,730 moved the May 31 market 5 points, which is meaningful but not a level that larger players couldn’t easily shift. The biggest single move was a 2-point spike early in the trading day.

What to watch

Trump’s announcement changes the picture, but the market isn’t pricing it as settled. At 90¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, a 1.22x return. That’s a bet on diplomatic follow-through, not just rhetoric. The key signals from here are any formal announcements or military repositioning in the Strait, Iran’s actual follow-through on its commitment, and US Naval activity in the area.

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