The US and Iran confirmed attendance at ceasefire talks in Islamabad. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 37.5% YES, down from 36% a week ago.
Both nations heading to Pakistan for talks has moved the ceasefire market with 10 days until resolution. The ceasefire extension market is at 21.0% YES, down sharply from 69% a week ago. The largest single drop was 16 points at 2:54 PM, a volatile day for expectations.
In the ceasefire market, actual USDC traded is $54,670, with just $841 needed to shift the odds by five points. The extension market is thicker: $264,370 in daily USDC and $2,773 required to move 5 points, suggesting stronger conviction or institutional participation.
The diplomatic signal here comes from a tier-3 report, but the participants are notable: US Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. At 37.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if military operations cease by April 30, a 3.3x return. For this bet to pay off, these talks would need to produce a tangible outcome within days.
Watch for JD Vance’s statements after the meeting, Asim Munir’s mediation updates, and any Trump Truth Social posts about the negotiations. Any of these could move prices quickly.
