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The US dollar’s share of international payments via SWIFT rose 1.9 points to 51.1% in March, coinciding with escalating US-Iran tensions. The Bank of Japan’s April decision market prices a rate cut at
Market reaction
A stronger dollar could complicate Japan’s inflation picture, though the BOJ rate cut market shows no movement from the static 0.2%. Safe-haven demand may push gold prices higher as Middle East tensions persist. The Bitcoin price predictions in April market could face downward pressure if investors rotate from crypto into dollars.
Why it matters
The Bank of Japan decision market has just $19 in actual USDC, and it would take only $82 to move the odds by 5 points. That extreme thinness means any real news could swing the market sharply. At 0.2%, a rate cut bet looks almost impossible, but an escalation in tensions that drives oil prices higher or worsens inflation could make it worth watching. The Bitcoin market is similarly quiet for now.
What to watch
Statements from BOJ Governor Ueda on inflation will matter most. Upcoming meetings and reports from other major central banks could also shift expectations across these markets.
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