The US military reports its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has turned back 27 vessels. The probability of the US lifting the blockade by May 31 is at 86.5% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
The report has moved the market on whether the UK will send warships through the Strait by April 30. Odds there sit at 8.5% YES, down from 12% a day ago. The blockade’s operational success could prompt allied nations to deploy their own naval assets, but no such deployments have been confirmed. The market remains thin, with only $304 required to move the odds 5 points.
The blockade market has more activity: $9,914 in USDC traded daily. A single 5-point drop at 12:19 PM yesterday shows a sharp reassessment by traders. The biggest expected jump in odds falls between April 19 and May 31, suggesting traders anticipate a potential breakthrough in that window.
Twenty-seven vessels turned back makes a near-term lifting less likely. That contradicts the earlier 90% YES odds. At 22¢, a YES share on lifting by May 31 pays $1 if resolved, a 4.5x return. For that bet to pay off, traders need to believe in a diplomatic resolution within 43 days.
Watch for announcements from the US Department of Defense and statements from allied nations. Any shift in naval deployments or diplomatic talks could move these odds quickly.
