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The U.S. Navy’s blockade on Iranian ports has stopped Iran’s oil exports for over 48 hours, cutting off a major supply channel to China. On Polymarket, crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 is at 25% YES in the crude oil market.
Market reaction
China previously bought up to 98% of Iran’s oil exports at discounted prices, so this blockade directly removes a large volume of supply from the market. Traders are adjusting positions in the crude oil market, with odds for the $90 threshold likely rising on the back of the disruption.
The likelihood of Trump announcing an end to the blockade by May 31 sits at
Why it matters
The 82% YES on a May 31 resolution paired with only 18% for April 19 implies traders expect the blockade to last weeks, not days. Each additional week without Iranian barrels reaching China tightens global supply and increases the probability of crude touching $90.
What to watch
Statements from Prince Abdulaziz, Novak, or DeCarolis on supply adjustments or diplomatic channels could shift both the blockade resolution and crude oil markets quickly. Any signal of diplomatic progress would likely compress the $90 odds; continued silence or escalation would push them higher. A position in the crude oil market at current 25% YES odds pays out if prolonged disruptions drive prices up, but reversal risk is real if negotiations accelerate.
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