US Navy seizes Iranian ship in Strait of Hormuz amid military escalation

President Trump announced that the US Navy has struck and seized an Iranian ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait by April 19 holds at 0.4% YES.

Market reaction

The April 19 transit market has not moved, staying at 0.4% YES. Volume is $14/day in USDC, meaning roughly $12 could shift the odds by 5 points. The UK warships market sits at 8.5% YES with $1,412 in daily USDC trading. The largest move there was a 2-point spike.

Why it matters

A US naval strike on an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz is a direct military escalation, yet both markets are flat. The transit market’s thin order book means the price reflects very few participants’ views. The UK warships market, with 100x more daily volume, prices British naval involvement as unlikely even after the US action.

What to watch

A YES share in the April 19 transit market costs 0.4¢ and pays $1 if fewer than 10 ships transit, a 250x return. That bet requires believing transits will drop dramatically within a day. Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the UK Ministry of Defence on operational posture, which could move the UK warships market off its current 8.5%.

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