President Donald Trump has approved a 30-year civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, which may permit uranium enrichment in the kingdom. This development has triggered worries among nonproliferation experts about a potential nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The agreement, part of the U.S.–Saudi civil nuclear cooperation track, is now subject to congressional review. Although the pact is civilian in nature, experts argue that it could accelerate regional nuclear proliferation if safeguards are inadequate. The move could also impact ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, potentially complicating diplomacy efforts.

Key Takeaways

• The approval of the U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal suggests increased regional proliferation risk, consistent with concerns about a Middle East arms race.
• Market pricing suggests a decrease in the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran final nuclear deal, reflecting potential diplomatic tensions.
• The current market odds for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by August 13, 2026, have decreased to 2.9% from 4%.

What to Watch

Watch for reactions from Iran and other regional actors that could influence the U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement. Statements from key figures, such as Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may provide further indications of Iran’s stance. Additionally, the U.S. Congress’s response to the Saudi deal approval will be crucial, as it could affect diplomatic dynamics and market perceptions. Developments that align with increased skepticism from Iran or U.S. policy shifts against enrichment will be particularly significant.

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