Galaxy Research says Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June as accumulation begins
Alex Thorn points to moving averages, quieter long-term holders and macro sellers who have cut exposure by more than half
Galaxy Research has made the call most crypto analysts avoid putting in writing. The firm says Bitcoin’s bear market is over.
In a report dated October 26, 2026, Galaxy argued that the downturn bottomed at approximately $76,540 on June 30, 2026. It says Bitcoin has since moved into an accumulation phase, the stretch where patient buyers quietly build positions while everyone else is still nursing their wounds.
What the data shows
The case comes from Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital. His summary was blunt.
“The bottom is in.”
The first piece of evidence is a trend signal. As of October 18, Bitcoin had logged five straight weekly closes above its 50-week moving average.
That streak broke a 44-week run in which Bitcoin closed below the line. Nearly a year spent on the wrong side of a key indicator is a long time, even by crypto standards.
The longer-term floor also held. The 200-week moving average acted as support throughout the decline, and Galaxy says the worst weekly close came in only 4.7% below it.
The sellers are getting tired
The second leg of the argument is about who is still selling. According to Galaxy, the answer is fewer people than before.
Long-term holders have eased off. Monthly movement of coins that sat untouched for five or more years averaged 34,000 BTC in 2026, compared with 67,000 BTC in 2024.
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Then there are the macro traders. Galaxy says these sellers, including nine major hedge funds, have reduced their futures and ETF exposure by more than half since Bitcoin’s peak in October 2025.
CME positioning tells a similar story. Asset managers’ net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures have dropped 57% since October 2025.
Cycle timing and the debasement pitch
Galaxy also leaned on Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. The report notes that the day 916 window after the halving has passed without a repeat of the lows seen in previous cycles.
The macro backdrop got a mention too. Galaxy highlighted US federal debt at $40.44 trillion, framing the figure as a tailwind for Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency debasement.
Thorn wrapped those threads together. Reduced selling pressure, a firmer debasement narrative and shifting sentiment, he argued, mark a favorable window for buying and holding Bitcoin.
Where price stands
At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading near $80,000. That leaves it about 35% below its October 2025 high of roughly $126,000.
What this means for investors
The most useful part of the report may be the part where Thorn tells readers how he could be wrong. He cautioned that if Bitcoin fails to recover above its 50-week moving average within a month, the bullish thesis would be in trouble.
Specifically, a weekly close back below that line without a quick recovery would challenge the view.
For shorter-term traders, the picture is murkier. A 57% drop in asset managers’ net long CME positions means institutional conviction is thin, which cuts both ways: less selling pressure, but also less buying firepower if sentiment turns.