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Iran’s new permission-based system for the Strait of Hormuz, requiring IRGC approval and imposing a toll, has left the market for fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13-19 effectively unchanged at 0.4% YES.
The controlled passage requirement has reinforced existing market positioning. The probability of fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait by April 19 sits at a near-certain 0.4% YES, consistent with the dramatic drop in tanker traffic and Iran’s restrictive new protocol. The market for countries sending warships through Hormuz by April 30 has also moved lower, with UK warship transit at
USDC volume in the ships transit market is thin at $14 per day, with an order book depth of just $12 needed to move the price 5 points. Small trades can shift the market at this liquidity level. The largest price move was a 2-point spike.
Iran’s announcement doesn’t change the immediate picture for traders. Iran maintains tight control over the strait, and without a diplomatic shift or a change in navigation policy, the odds of increased ship traffic stay low. A YES share at 0.4¢ pays $1 if fewer than 10 ships transit by April 19, which at this point is near-certain.
Watch for diplomatic negotiations or statements from CENTCOM and the IRGC that could signal a loosening of Iran’s transit restrictions. Any easing would move these markets sharply.
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