Iran re-closes Strait of Hormuz, halting commercial shipping

Iran has re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, making it commercially unusable. The likelihood of 80 ships transiting by April 30 is at 22% YES, down from 51% yesterday.

Market reaction

The April 30 market dropped 29 points after Iran enforced a “soft closure” of the shipping lane, settling at 22% YES. Traders are skeptical that significant shipping activity resumes soon. The order book is thin: $797 moves the price 5 points. A 10-point drop at 5:48 PM suggests genuine pessimism rather than just low-liquidity noise.

The April 13-19 market, set to resolve soon, sits at 0.4% YES, unchanged. Only $14 in actual USDC has moved, so the market is effectively stagnant, with little belief that fewer than 10 ships will transit during the period.

Why it matters

The closure has spilled into oil-linked markets. The WTI Crude Oil market for $160 in April is at 1.4% YES, after a 25-point spike in earlier trading as traders priced in potential supply disruptions.

What to watch

Iran’s move complicates the geopolitical situation, but the tier-3 source behind the report suggests this might be noise rather than a definitive shift. At 22¢, a YES share pays $1 if transit happens by April 30, a potential 4.55x return. To justify that bet, you’d need to believe in a swift resolution within 12 days.

Watch for IRGC announcements or US diplomatic moves. Statements from Admiral Cooper or a shift in the naval blockade could move odds quickly.

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