Kalshi odds for an Anthropic IPO announcement slide to 57%

Traders on Kalshi have lost a lot of confidence in an Anthropic IPO announcement arriving before December. Odds on the contract fell to 57%, down from nearly 90% just a week ago.

A 30-plus point drop in seven days is a real repricing, not a rounding error. The crowd that recently treated a near-term announcement as close to a sure thing now sees it as only a bit better than a coin flip.

What the market is pricing

Research compiled on the contract puts current Kalshi pricing in a 57-61% range for Anthropic officially announcing an initial public offering by December 1, 2026. That is a steep fall from late October, when estimates reached as high as 90%.

The longer-dated contract tells a slightly calmer story. As of early November, the market was pricing a 69-70% probability of an announcement before January 1, 2027.

So traders haven’t abandoned the idea of an Anthropic listing. They have mostly pushed their expected timeline back, and lowered their conviction along the way.

Money is following the debate. Trading volume on the relevant Kalshi contracts has exceeded $4.9 million, which is meaningful liquidity for a single corporate-event question.

One wrinkle matters a great deal here: how Kalshi decides what counts. The platform defines an “official announcement” based on confirmations from major news outlets.

How the odds got so high

The spike toward 90% had a clear catalyst. According to the research, Anthropic publicly filed its Form S-1 with the SEC on October 26, 2026.

The filing reportedly lays out plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker “ANT,” with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters. Unsurprisingly, the S-1 initially gave traders a jolt of optimism about a near-term listing.

Many had anticipated a mid-November listing. As that window approached without the kind of confirmation the contract requires, expectations cooled.

The numbers behind the hype

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers and is best known for its Claude family of language models. Its financials, as described in the research, explain why investors are paying close attention.

The company reported $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026. That represents growth of more than 1,300% year-over-year.

Anthropic also posted its first operating profit in the second quarter. The bottom line looks very different, though. Anthropic’s half-year net loss came to $80.7 billion, largely driven by significant non-cash fair-value adjustments.

On valuation, the figures are enormous. Anthropic raised a $65 billion Series H round in May 2026, which left its last private valuation at $965 billion. Rumored IPO targets reportedly range between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.

What this means

The gap between the December and January contracts is the most useful signal here. A roughly 12-point spread suggests traders see a delay as more likely than a cancellation, which is a much less dramatic read than the headline drop implies.

The valuation leap is another pressure point. Moving from a $965 billion private mark to a rumored $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion public target would require public market investors to buy into an even bigger story than private backers already did.

Until then, the market is sitting at 57%. That’s optimism with an asterisk, and the asterisk got a lot bigger this week.