Vessels attacked in Strait of Hormuz, raising energy supply disruption fears

Vessels came under fire in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, pushing odds that 80 ships will transit the Strait by April 30 down to 26.5% YES from 51% yesterday.

Market reaction

The market dropped sharply, with a 10-point decline recorded at 5:48 PM. The attacks and reimposition of Iranian restrictions have made traders doubtful the transit target will be met. Last week the odds sat at a higher 18%. You can track this shift here.

The likelihood of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 ticked up to 8.5% YES from 8% a week ago, though the market remains skeptical of immediate military action.

Why it matters

Both markets are thin. It takes $797 to move the ship transit odds by five percentage points and just $304 for the warship deployment market. Modest trades can move prices substantially, which means new information about the Strait gets priced in fast but also noisily.

What to watch

The question for traders is whether the escalation continues or a diplomatic opening appears. Buying YES at 26.5¢ would pay 4.5x if Iran permits more transits, but given the current situation that bet requires a leap of faith.

Watch for announcements from Admiral Brad Cooper and the IRGC. A shift in U.S. or Iranian posture could swing these markets sharply in the coming days.

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