Augur / USD Technical Analysis: A Tortuous Path To Reversal

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• Augur is under pressure in the short-term after a period of sustained losses in the second half of January
• The recent decline has created bullish price divergence on the four-hour time frame
• REP/USD is bearish in the medium-term but shows potential for a bullish reversal 

Augur / USD Short-term price analysis

In the short-term, Augur is bearish and has been under sustained selling pressure over the last two weeks. The REP / USD pair is currently below its 50-period moving average on the four-hour time frame, which is consistent with weakness.

Drawing a Fibonacci retracement sequence from the REP / USD pair’s current 2019 trading peak to the start of the mid-January rally, we can see that the decline has found support from 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Strong bullish trends will usually reverse from the 61.8 retracement level if a pullback occurs.

It is worth noting that the recent decline has created sizeable bullish divergence on the four-hour time frame.

Pattern Watch

A head and shoulders pattern is visible on the lower time frames, although the downward projection of the bearish pattern appears to have played out.

REP / USD H4 Chart                                                                         (Source: TradingView)

Relative Strength Index

The Relative Strength Index shows bullish price divergence on the four-hour time frame. This may be a leading indicator that the recent decline may reverse at some point in the near-term.

MACD Indicator

The MACD indicator is starting to correct higher but currently provides no clear signal.

REP / USD Medium-term price analysis

Augur is bearish in the medium-term, but shows potential for a bullish breakout if the REP/USD pair can establish a price floor around current trading levels.

A large inverted head and shoulders pattern can be seen across the daily time frame chart. Bulls ideally need to sustain the REP / USD pair above the 10.0000 level over the medium term; this key psychological level also coincides with the pair’s 50-day moving average over the medium-term.

Technical indicators on the daily time frame show no clear bullish signs at present, although the Stochastic indicator appears slightly overstretched.

Pattern Watch

The inverted head and shoulders pattern is the key theme across the daily time frame. A recovery back above the pattern’s neckline is vital for medium-term strength in the REP / USD pair.

REP / USD Daily Chart                                                                         (Source: TradingView)

MACD Indicator

The MACD shows no clear divergence on the daily time frame, while the histogram is starting to stabilize and the MACD line is moving lower.

Stochastic Indicator

The stochastic indicator appears overstretched on the daily time frame. Traders should watch for a reversal in this indicator as it may signal a near-term price floor and possibly the start of a reversal.

Conclusion

Augur is bearish in the short-term and medium-term and is moving lower alongside the prevailing long-term downtrend in the REP / USD pair.

This cryptocurrency shows promising signs that a recovery could take place if a near-term price floor is established. The bullish divergence present on the four-hour time frame supports a strong near-term recovery, while the large inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily time frame could reignite Augur’s medium-term prospects.

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